Market Update 09/12
The year is coming to close, in my mind there’s only 2 weeks left, at best, for any decent market volume and news.
I do wonder about the perceived impact of Trump’s much written about policies…and that the USD will be strong for his 4 year term. But I’ll say this…Russian/Ukraine looks done…Red Sea noise looks like it’s finishing up, Israel is now done with Gaza and is going to conquer Syria to secure supply chains (amongst other matters…). When the wars are over, the cost of business declines and we all benefit. Would the USD still be strong versus a country like Thailand? Let’s see…I wouldn’t be surprised to see resumed strengthening in Asian currencies after the shellacking received in the past 4 years.
peter satrapa-binder
Trump policies: depends on whether he will also levy higher import duties on goods from south east asian countries (the argument might be made that china is trying to avoid hight tariffs by producing in thailand, etc. and trump would want to stop make that more difficult too). also, i’d rather see inflation going up in the usa if he really does what he said he will do (migrants, import duties). strong us dollar, probably.
russia/ukraine completed soon too: that’s a very optimistic view.
israel/syria: well, there has been a game changer in syria during the weekend.
Sebastian
Trump may indeed be excessively pumped. His policy statements are in fact political statements – the saying serves its own purpose. He will do something. Then he will say what he has done. These things don’t need to have much factual connection.
Russia/Ukraine? Stop the Madness? I’ll hold my breath.
peter satrapa-binder
Trump: some of what he said he will do may have been only political posturing. or he may see that there would be too much resistance, for example if american companies start to strongly complain about not having enough personnel (if illegal migrants are really sent packing) or if prices increase because of higher import duties (american companies will simply pass them on to the customer) or if american countries are facing hurdles when exporting (if other countries retaliate with reciprocal import duties).