Market Update 11/11
It’s 11/11, it’s shopping time!
In the midst of earnings season, a little event occurred in North America, Trump and friends won, they picked up the silly pollsters, ideology focused politicians, and slapped the silliness out of them. And (hey future forward folks, if you’re reading this), they won bigly, they didn’t celebrate early, they won the popular vote by a landslide, and put together the best kickass team possible of Trump, Vance, Vivek , RFK Jr, Dana white, Elon Musk, etc etc etc so that there is zero question that US citizens want something better than the Biden crime family and the drunkard Kamala. (side note…isn’t it rather obvious that the 2020 outcome was scam…just going by the #’s…)
So what, this is Thailand! Americans are the #1 consumer of everything in the world – this isn’t changing anytime soon…you want Americans to be rich to buy everything that Asia exports…if the US is poor then Asia is poor. You want the wars to be over, just imagine within 12 months…Ukraine/Russia – done, Israel vs everyone done, Houthis & the blowfish causing trouble in the Red Sea done. Wars increase the cost of business and capital – once these costs come down, fantastic.
But these outcomes will take time..then again it was just a few years ago that we were all locked down for a stupidly long period because the world was led by governments that though China’s model of governance was best…idiots. Times change quickly – it’s going to be a fun period…finally.
Now to Thailand….banks #s were $hit…top line wise…super $hit, there is zero new liquidity in the country. Let’s see if this changes like I thought it would over the next few months. Without it we’re just going to see 1 industry, the telco’s, continue to squeeze costs, and increase fees on us all.
peter satrapa-binder
trump: you know, i don’t like hi, but well, let’s give him the benefit of doubt. we will see it from january2025 onwards. btw the same argument which went against biden is valid for trump too now: old age. imho jd vance might actually be more capable than trump.
Pon
Trump has such an amazing team…question is execution and timeframe, I still bet heavily on all matters improving.
peter satrapa-binder
I’ll call them ‘amazing’ (or not) after i have seen results. 🙂
peter satrapa-binder
also, i am not that sure whether trump’s politics will be good for thai stocks. we have seen the USD increase against the THB which would basically be good for thai exporters to the USA – but what if the trump team raises import tariffs?
such tariffs may also increase inflation in the usa -> higher interest rates -> again, capital outflow from thailand and bad for stocks in general?
also, very probably because of the rising USD there has been capital outflow from thailand.
well, probably a high USD would be good for inbound tourism to thailand.
let’s see but maybe the stock buying time (in thailand or everywhere except in the usa itself at least) may come only at much lower stock prices and not just yet.
Pon
Thailand’s main competitive advantage is that it is the Playground of Asia.
peter satrapa-binder
ok, there is that, admittedly.