Market Update 24/02
The market woke up this morning with a serious flu with the whole region down 1-2%.
It’s not much of a surprise given the supposed 2 weeks period that it takes for the flu to appear in people. I suspect this week will be peak fear.
Should the analogy to SARS hold that by the time the warmer season appears, infection/death rates decline, don’t be surprised to see a strong recovery in share prices.
But without a doubt every company (excl energy and perhaps convenience stores) is going to have -20% in revenue in the 1Q20, weaker players will have financing issues etc etc. And if the flu doesn’t subside, then there are going to be bigger issues versus a stock market declining.
peter satrapa-binder
i wouldn’t be so sure about convenience stores. i guess they will also suffer somewhat…
Pon
I don’t see 7-11’s revenue declining by -20% in 1Q20 (nor the bigc’s/makros). I am curious to see the BTS/BEM ridership numbers for Feb. Always wondered how many trips came from tourists.
I can comfortably see it for everyone else that relies directly upon people moving and traveling – car sales, property sales, drinks, restaurants, hotels, airlines, clothing, malls, effectively related to discretionary spending.