Been a bit quiet here because I’ve had multiple co visits in this week and I’ll share some quick n dirty thoughts on the aforementioned names

GMM

• They swap the pay TV company to CTH in exchange for shares in CTH, the reasons for this are:
• PayTV was losing them 200 mil baht a month
• Digital TV (DTTV) coming up for them and they want to focus on it

Is DTTV good for them:

• They believe yes because now they’ll have dedicated channels and they will control the ad rates that they can receive, before they were at the behest of the major channels and only receiving 14 hours of airtime a month, now they effectively have 48 hrs (24×2) that they can control for ads 

Investable?

• There will be a definite turnaround in earnings because they have dumped the payTV and they will have DTTV, the numbers you all would have to run.

BEC

• They make all their money from CH 3
• Does DTTV hurt them?
• I’ve thought that DTTV would hurt them as ad rates would fall and hurt their bottom line, their response is that Thailand already has over 100 channels and CH3 is still amongst the best, another 24 channels is not going to hurt them in the end advertisers will go with the safe solid #1 leader in the market.
• They will use their DTTV channel to test new programs and to let old programs finish there 

Investable?

• Perhaps any weakness in their share price is a possible time to buy

CRANE

• Their acquisition of the new crane gives them an advantage over others in the market
• They will benefit from the infrastructure spending as more zoomlion cranes can be sold
• There isn’t a risk of a capital increase to buy big cranes because they can’t plan this in advance, they have to wait for a crane to be available in the market and then purchase, if they buy too many @ a go then there is a capital increase risk but their D/E is 1x now so not an issue
• The crane rental business for them is going to look good until the end of next year, up until then it depends upon how many projects they can find (shouldn’t be an issue)
• Interesting to note is that they can never have 100% utilisation because there is always a downtime period for their cranes
• Dep: 7 years, payback period is 5 years

Investable?

• To me the company is worth THB 6/share

UAC

• Its their biogas investments (renewable) that has the company busy, they will have 30 projects up and running over the next 2 years and there isn’t a risk of a capital call either, they have warrants on hand today that are in the money and should be exercised.
• They will most likely be adjusting their shareholding structure to put all these investments under UAC Energy and list UAC Energy in the market in 2-3 years.
• Their trading business will contribute less and less to the bottom line over time, but its not a money loser.

Investable?

• Quick analysis indicates that the company may be worth THB 10-12/share  

SPCG

• They have all 36 plants (260MW) up and running now, profits for a full year with all plants running will be THB 2.4 bn (approximately)
• They will expand further by copying the business model of Solar City (owned by Elon Musk, tesla guy, and listed in the US) which is to sell solar modules (via homepro) to houses in Thailand and receiving a fee for managing the power
• The recent PP to Gulf gives them capital (d/e drops from 4 to 3) and the opportunity to invest in projects in Japan
• Note: Gulf is the LARGEST private power producer in Thailand, its Japanese.
• All their plants have the +8baht adder, the upside kicker may be if electricity rates in Thailand increase over time (management expects this because they say Thailand is running out of gas and imports LPG @ 2x the rate of what they receive from PTT)
• Owner indicated that a special dividend may be announced with 2Q14 earnings to “reward” shareholders

Investable?

• Based on its existing business the company is worth THB 28-32/share, should there be additional projects or business expansions, then it’ll be accretive in value terms

TRUE

• Piece of shit, but with china mobile’s money and this recent capital increase they debt and interest payments decline dramatically
• The question is, can TRUE (which now has a 1/3 mkt share of bkk) gain 1/3 mkt share throughout Thailand? They have the towers, but is management capable enough? 

Investable?

• It is now worth more than zero (or is it?) no idea on valuation.