Random Thoughts
H. Marks Memo
Perhaps I’m just biased from reading H. Marks memo’s for the past decade, but yes I typically say that I have no idea what will happen in the future and just explain potential scenarios (for companies/industries/countries) based upon what’s happening now. But even then I normally finish every conversation with this line “I probably will change my mind 5 mins after walking out of here if I see new information and I won’t tell you b/c I’ll be busy thinking of new scenarios and how to put it to work”
True/DTAC
A note from the clever gents JY and VK of Yuanta’s Foreign desk.
Just last week, the Senate approved the appointment of Pol Gen Nathathorn Prousoonthorn, a former special advisor in the Royal Thai Police, to the board of the NBTC, taking the number of board members to 6 NBTC, of a total of commissioners. In the same confirmation hearing, the Senate rejected another proposed candidate, Mr. Apirat Siritaratiwat – an engineering lecturer from Khon Kaen University. This paving the way for the Senate to choose another board member, to make up the full board seats of 7. Commentators suggest that the incoming Pol Gen Nathathorn’s membership will delay any NBTC decision on the TRUE/DTAC matter, which will be postponed for the 3rd time from Sept 10 to Oct 10. Adding further to the potential controversy is that the NBTC board chairman’s position has been vacant since Takorn Tantasith stepped down in July 2020, and in the interim has been filled by an “acting secretary general”, Mr. Trairat Viriyasirikul, the NBTC deputy secretary general. Should there be a 3-3 vote on matter, a “tie-breaking vote” from the chairman could be cast. This will be tricky territory for the NBTC, and without the requisite secretary general in place, or full board seats, goes a long way to explain the lack of clear messaging from them on the merger issue. How this will play out in the end looks like a 50/50 bet at this stage, there are some serious players with large interests and larger connections on both sides to make a call. And we aren’t in the predicting business when it comes to regulator board decisions. However you could argue that the longer the matter drags out, it is a way for everyone to get used to the idea, have enough time to air opposition to the merger, and consequently allow for the temperature to cool, before proceeding ahead anyway. Another interesting one to monitor.
Trading True has been the gift that keeps on giving over the past 12 months or so.
Elections in Thailand are going ahead.
THAILAND: Next general election May 7. The Election commission (EC) has set MAY 7, 2023 as the date for the next election, assuming the house of representatives completes its term on March 23. The section 102 of the constitutional stipulates that the general election must be held within 45 days of the house finishing its term. Aside from setting May 7 as election day, the commission has set forth a tentative schedule as follows;
- April 3-7 the opening of candidacy applications
- April 11 as the last day for announcement of polling stations and the list of eligible voters
- April 14 for announcement of the lust if election candidates
- April 16 as the last day for sending letters to notify house owners of the election committees at polling stations
- April 26 as the last day for any change to pooling units and election venues and for the adding or withdrawal of names
- April 30 for advance voting in constituencies or outside constituencies
- May 1-6 for voters to give reasons they may not cast their ballots
- May 1 as the last day for submit a petition regarding election candidates rights to stand in an election
- May 3 as the last day for the supreme court to consider candidates’ rights to apply in case election directors in constituencies refuse to accept applications
- May 6 as the last day for the election directors in constituencies to submit petitions to the supreme court about disqualification of candidates
- May 7 set as the election day
- May 8-14 for voters to give reasons for not casting ballots
So what?
I can paint a very positive story or a very negative one here…Whilst I often point to the demographic shift in the country since the coup & the last “election” unless there is a change in the constitution, I expect that PT (which are now more obviously than ever are just left overs from the original days) decides to buddy buddy with Bumjaithai and PPRP leading to more of the same but with a nicer shine to it. Then again when a situation goes from shit to bad, isn’t that an improvement?
Other news
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2382953/long-term-visa-applications-officially-open
I can imagine that every country in the world is going to be competing for talent and investments.
There’s a lot of second and third order effects from the covid lockdowns and this is one of them. Every country is broke and is chasing investment.
Thailand’s attempt is this rather odd…..there’s such a simple solution…ease the visa rules and regulations, there’ll be a rush of immigrants that create clusters of economies and businesses.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2391608/govt-throws-lifeline-to-3-4m-indebted-students
I didn’t realise how big this issue was in Thailand.
A friend commented, why didn’t Porsche IPO at 9.11?