Inflation/supply chain

A silly analogy however every once in a while Ill enjoy an overpriced (but fantastic) coffee for 120 baht. Recently the price has increased to 140, why? According to the staff it’s because finding fresh cow milk is harder than before. This doesn’t apply just to them, the average coffee that I buy from Inthanin has also increased their prices from 50 to 60 (that’s +20%).

As I’ve said to friends – have you seen how small the kit kat’s, snickers and mars bars are now?!?

KBANK vs SCBXXX

A month ago KBANK came out how they are expanding hiring throughout the region

Clip source: Kasikornbank looks to triple overseas staff

Then the next day, SCBX just had to follow with their own news article.

Clip source: SCB X rejig targets regional fintech status

But without any real information on how they are going to achieve this. Yes I’m hearing that they are hiring a lot of people and filling out teams for all the X businesses, but the people running the entities aren’t quite the …. go-getter types that are required, and so I’m in constant bewilderment how Arthid is allowed to remain CEO…

UK Giltcoin

Credit: Unknown

Russell Napier

This interview seemed to be making the rounds a week or so ago.

https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will-experience-a-capex-boom-ld.7606

Here’s a snippet

“What will this new world mean for investors?

First of all: avoid government bonds. Investors in government debt are the ones who will be robbed slowly. Within equities, there are sectors that will do very well. The great problems we have – energy, climate change, defence, inequality, our dependence on production from China – will all be solved by massive investment. This capex boom could last for a long time. Companies that are geared to this renaissance of capital spending will do well.”

This led me down the google/yt rabbit hole and came across this interesting interview talking about the ’97 crisis. As I mentioned to a friend, nothing is better to listen to than an intelligent sounding Scotsman.

Cap rates

1. HP rate caps to take effect around mid-Jan 2023
   1. The Office of the Consumer Protection Board (OCPB) announced on 12 Oct 2022 in the government gazette the interest rate caps for car and motorcycle hire purchase (HP):
      1. 10% p.a. for new-car HP
      2. 15% p.a. for used-car HP
      3. 23% p.a. for motorcycle HP
   2. The HP rate caps will take effect in 90 days after the announcement, i.e. around mid-Jan 2023
   3. The OCPB will revisit the interest rate caps every three years to align the rates with the economic condition at that respective period

Goodbye NCAP, SAWAD, and MTC. What’s amusing about the last two companies is that their growth is coming from piling more debt onto their existing customer base, their new customer acquisition is … just look at how MTC doesn’t disclose the # of new customers for a few years now.

Selling out to foreigners

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-25/wealthy-foreigners-given-new-pathway-to-buy-land-in-thailand?sref=mb1KtL6P

One of my team said “Prayuth has decided to sell the country” I counter that Thailand start this trend after ’97 to allow “foreigners” to own up to 49% of condominium buildings, and this is just the next natural transition as 1) The property market is truly f$*#ked at the moment (aside from the big boys that are hoovering up) 2) Banks are on the hook with loans and should there be a broad-based decline in RE values then well…. 3) Thailand has to compete….”selling the country” is a natural progress…and eventually they’ll allow full ownership…probably after the next major crisis in 30 years…

I’ve wondered how quickly we’re seeing a race to the bottom for all countries to try and attract “talent”, jobs, companies, visitors with incentives.

Practically every country in the region is offering some form of incentives. This all came from the reactions of governments to locking down countries and economies etc etc and now they’re surprised that their economies are not purring.

And yes, I like to counter with, “So if you lived in another country, wouldn’t you want the opportunity to own your home there?” Nationalism is amusing to watch…

Earnings season

Have a look back to the 2Q22 #’s, banks are still rocking as seen with 3Q figures. I suspect we’ll see a similar trend with the added benefit of tourism that’s stacking up. Quick random thought – for the time being, companies are increasing their ASP’s with the real change of inflation, but are only increasing labour costs with the official inflation rate, margin expansion for the next few q’s then?

JKN buys the Ms Universe license

I’m not going to comment…if you’ve met me you know what I’d say.

Link: https://classic.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=16667415805080&sequence=2022124241

OK fine, what’s the business case here? Expanding the contestant pool, expanding the types of competitions, utilising the brand to develop products? All possible. Or is the founder worried about the potential conversion of the convert debenture they have with an investment fund which would reduce his/her stake in the plc, and this was a great way to pop the stock?