Random Thoughts – CPF, Thai Airways, Yuan
Third quarter earnings season has officially come to an end:
Now there’s a lot to talk about, but being the my usual sarcastic self here’s what I’ve found most amusing thus far:
- CPF’s earnings – Core profit was a decent THB 1.3 bn in 3Q15, with total net profit at about THB 3.6 bn, a decent +20% improvement QoQ, but where did this magical improvements come from? Well CPF booked THB 1.2 bn from trading in CPALL’s shares, yes thats right, THB 857 mn from forex and a “minor” THB 196 mn from changes in FV on biological assets….ok so half of their net profits weren’t real, well there you go..
- Thai Airways – They lost nearly another THB 10 bn in the 3Q15 alone! So despite the military’s best attempts to decrease their salaries by 10%, fire a few people, not much as really be done…int debt to equity is near 10x..which banks are going to be at risk should Thai Airways not recap in the near future? I could spend a whole hour/day/month/year writing down everything that Thai Airways has done in the past decade and how it should improve themselves (armchair ceo!) but I have better things to do, in the end I’m still just waiting for that recap..
The Yuan will become part of the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights reserve-currency basket right alongside the USD, Euro, Pound and Yen, despite little fanfare this is just another step along in the way where I believe a lot companies in Asia/Europe and the Americas will begin quoting invoices in Yuan versus only the USD and at times the Euro. Standard Chartered Plc and AXA Investment Managers have predicted at least $1 trillion of global reserves will convert to Chinese assets if the yuan joins the IMF’s reserve basket. These are interesting times…
Xavi
Cpf has made massive profits last 3 quarters trading their 7/11 shares. Surely there are insider trading implications to this or are the CP family untouchable?
Pon
They aren’t untouchable, but if the market believes one thing and they believe another and benefit then hats off to them.