Random Thoughts – Money money moneyyy – Casino Plays
Thailand, it’s the playground of Asia, and as THE playground of Asia it’s been missing a legitimate casino.
Over the past few months there have been rumours and murmings about the casino project in Thailand, and similar to what I did with the cannabis plays, That Sweet Weed, here’s a random list of Thai companies that may be involved in the casino projects.
And so allow me, yet again, to indulge myself on some rumours, blasphemy, and a lotta random thoughts.
Why does this matter?
- Total Gaming revenue in Singapore is SGD 5 bn.
- Don’t you think Thailand could comfortably beat this figure with 8 licenses?
- Bloomberg Resorts (BLOOM PM) had a mkt cap of PHP 58 bn (USD 1 bn), with revenues of PHP 25 bn (USD 0.5 bn). That’s 2x revenue, and this is for a name listed in the Philippines!
- Imagine any of the listed co’s in Thailand being awarded a casino license….that’s the metric to value it in the short-term.
Disclaimer: These are all rumours, there is zero evidence behind this, the notes are taken from conversations and what’s been read online.
Random rumours (as there are zero facts)
- Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts flew in a few months ago and met with CP Group.
- 7 integrated casinos, 3 for Bangkok, other locations are Pattaya, Chiang Mai, Phuket and others
- Timeline: First draft done (link below), a follow up reading in December 2024, if it passes multiple readings, licenses may be issued by 3Q25.
The names rumoured are:
Royal Sports Complex, Siam Park City Group, Utapao Airport (BA, STEC, VGI), The Mall Group, CP (which entity?), BA, BLAND, MCOT, PROUD, RS, GULF, VGI (news links for several below)
Random stories on some of the names
MCOT:
Back in October 2024 the share price begun very position due to the below
“Kindly refer to news publication on MCOT’s land development project headlined “MCOT to Close Deal on
50-Rai Land with Partner for Entertainment Complex Development”.
We would like to clarify that we are in the process of studying feasibility, analysing and defining terms of
reference of such project. Additionally, none of significant development has occurred other than what has
already been disclosed in the Company’s information in accordance with SET’s regulations. MCOT will
keep you updated with any information or development that might affect the fundamentals of securities price”
Thoughts: If MCOT is going to have a role in this, it’ll only be as a landlord, perhaps in the form of injecting the land in exchange for equity – or as they like to do in Thailand a super long lease term, and perhaps something off the top
BLAND:
News flow? Nada
Thoughts: I love this idea….they have the landbank necessary at Muang Thong Thani to develop something of this size. They have the balance sheet strength, with practically no debt (or as some friends say – because no bank wants to lend to them) and the owner has commented a decade ago to me that he’d love to have a casino there.
BA/VGI/STEC:
Newsflow; Links below
Thoughts: They’re part of the consortium that owns utapao – it’s a no brainer. I wouldn’t be surprised to see BA get something on their own as well…they are a concession king with the Samui Airport, has the balance sheet support of BDMS as well if needed. VGI & STEC – simply stories VGI as an equity partner, seems to have raised capital (in preparation for this?) and STEC will be the main contractor (means avoid this casino as it’ll fall apart like the government building)
PROUD:
Newsflow: Link Below
Thoughts: Well the founder made his $ getting kickbacks (allegedly) to provide industrial licenses in Thailand during Mr. T’s reign. Not sure on the landbank nor their capacity to actually fund anything.
GULF
Newsflow: Nada
Thoughts: Only because its still THE crony capitalist vehicle in Thailand, if Sarath can’t get a piece of the pie, then I’d be very surprised.
RS
Newsflow: Whispers
Thoughts; Utter BS. UNLESS it’s an online casino play. But as for a physical one? Nah….
Data and graphs
Here’s some basic data on the listed co names
What else?
The auxiliary businesses around this could be rather amusing and positive for the country if they are able to mimic part of the Singapore route. Just imagine the development of an Art market, private banking, alcohol market, even more gold trading, a crypto market.
Casinos are THE dark art of modern society, dirty money flows around, drugs, prostitution etc…. if Thailand plays it well, “legitimate” industries should be created around it and these newly developed industries are all going to be net positives for the economy, on paper.
Final reminder: The above is all conjecture, based upon rumours and whispers and me typing this out on my smartphone whilst flying back from Europe.
Thanks to KP & PW for your random discussions on this.
Sources/links:
https://www.efinancethai.com/LastestNews/LatestNewsMain.aspx?release=y&ref=M&id=d09NSktkOUpKSzQ9
MCOT https://weblink.set.or.th/dat/news/202410/0803NWS091020240830510600E.pdf?_gl=1162frzb_gcl_auMTczODI1MjMxNy4xNzI0MzIzMzcz_gaMTg0Mzc2Mjk3OC4xNTg5NTQ5ODY4_ga_ET2H60H2CB*MTcyOTEzNjkzNi4yMDMuMS4xNzI5MTM2OTY3LjI5LjAuMA