Rant time – nothing clever below, just imagine that I’m that fellow at the pub whose mouth is full of fries and beers, standing up with my mouth full and muttering nonsense.

My favourite new insult is “you are, how can I call it, a small cat”  (go google it) and I’ll use it from time to time here.

I would still like to enact this torture scene on Anutin (a small cat) and Friends.

RCEP

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2240583/rcep-begins-as-smes-hold-breath

Thailand is vassal state for China at the moment and a net importer. Just look at the below.

You can go through the RCEP (https://rcepsec.org/) and go through the legal text, my main takeaway is that this is a pro China business FTA that is going to absolutely hurt countries like Thailand. Just watch for the state SOEs from China come in and do very well here. But hey it’s great headlines.

Bad Debt, NPL’s, JV with AMCs, Digital Banks

Bad debt and npl’s are a massive issue for the Thai banking sector at the moment – this is why the JV with AMCs isn’t much of a surprise – japanification of the Thai banking sector – check.

Here’s a solution for the Bank of Thailand, open up the banking licenses and allow foreign banks to compete against the local oligopolies. Fairly certain that this will help to boost the economy faster than what is currently planned. Plus it will provide better financing and (hopefully) bring in new ideas to a staid system. Though a friend pointed out to me that digital banks haven’t made much of an impact in the markets that they already exist in….I’d say…defi has. (Note: I would like to claim credit that I thought of this before it was announced yesterday….)

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2257051/bank-of-thailand-to-let-banks-invest-more-in-fintech

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2257267/bot-paper-eyes-rejig-of-the-financial-sector

Rant on FDI

The staid system argument is one I have for hoping that CP Group and Charoen have severe financing issues and therefore would have to sell off some core assets. Now the nationalists may say “oh you’re giving away the country to foreigners” what I say is,

1. new capital
2. new ideas
3. new jobs
4. new innovation
5. new thinking

its fairly obvious that over the past decade new investment into Thailand hasn’t happened and its been a stagnant economy for the average person, compare this period to 2000-2012 when foreign companies were far more active in the country, there was hope everywhere and yes I know it coincided with a recovery from ’97 (clean b/s for companies, the country, a weaker currency and a younger population) and some decent economic plans from Thaksin. Regardless, a stagnant incestuous thinking has infected the economy.

And why is FDI slow? The committee is Chaired by Prayuth and do not meet on a regular basis – therefore everything is slow for approval. A small cat.

Wiennnnnnnnnnnnnnn’s Top 10 surprises for 2022.

1. The combination of strong earnings clashes with rising interest rates, resulting in the S&P 500 making no progress in 2022. Value outperforms growth. High volatility continues and there is a correction that approaches, but does not exceed, 20%.
2. While the prices of some commodities decline, wages and rents continue to rise and the Consumer Price Index and other widely followed measures of inflation increase by 4.5% for the year. Declines in prices of transportation and energy encourage the die-hard proponents of the view that inflation is “transitory,” but persistent inflation becomes the dominant theme.
3. The bond market begins to respond to rising inflation and tapering by the Federal Reserve, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury rises to 2.75%. The Fed completes its tapering and raises rates four times in 2022.
4. In spite of the Omicron variant, group meetings and convention gatherings return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year. While Covid remains a problem throughout both the developed and the less-developed world, normal conditions are largely restored in the US. People spend three to four a days a week in offices and return to theaters, concerts, and sports arenas en masse.
5. Chinese policymakers respond to recent turmoil in the country’s property markets by curbing speculative investment in housing. As a result, there is more capital from Chinese households that needs to be invested. A major asset management industry begins to flourish in China, creating opportunities for Western companies.
6. The price of gold rallies by 20% to a new record high. Despite strong growth in the US, investors seek the perceived safety and inflation hedge of gold amidst rising prices and volatility. Gold reclaims its title as a haven for newly minted billionaires, even as cryptocurrencies continue to gain market share.
7. While the major oil-producing countries conclude that high oil prices are speeding up the implementation of alternative energy programs and allowing US shale producers to become profitable again, these countries can’t increase production enough to meet demand. The price of West Texas crude confounds forward curves and analyst forecasts when it rises above $100 per barrel.
8. Suddenly, the nuclear alternative for power generation enters the arena. Enough safety measures have been developed to reduce fears about its dangers, and the viability of nuclear power is widely acknowledged. A major nuclear site is approved for development in the Midwest of the United States. Fusion technology emerges as a possible future source of energy.
9. ESG evolves beyond corporate policy statements. Government agencies develop and enforce new regulatory standards that require public companies in the US to publish information documenting progress on various metrics deemed critical in the new era. Federal Reserve governors spearhead implementation of stress tests to assess financial institutions’ vulnerability to climate change scenarios.
10. In a setback to its green energy program, the United States finds it cannot buy enough lithium batteries to power the electric vehicles planned for production. China controls the lithium market, as well as the markets for the cobalt and nickel used in making the transmission rods, and it opts to reserve most of the supply of these commodities for domestic use.

https://www.blackstone.com/news/press/byron-wien-and-joe-zidle-announce-the-ten-surprises-of-2022/

Thailand’s NFT’s and crypto taxes

There’s a lot of noise at the moment about this, but until there’s a law approved by the King we’re just keeping our eyes closed. At the end of the day when a framework is announced it’ll be easier to figure out who the winners/losers will be.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2243303/regulator-tightens-control-of-nft-trading

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2242723/crypto-traders-subject-to-15-capital-gains-tax

David Collum

His year in review have been must read since I found them 3 years ago.

It’s going to take you the weekend to go through all 3 parts. It’s great revisit of the markets, healthcare and politics, and if you aren’t sitting depressed/angry by the end of it you have no soul and are a small cat.

Part 1: https://www.peakprosperity.com/2021-year-in-review-crisis-of-authority-and-the-age-of-narratives-part-1/

Part 2: https://www.peakprosperity.com/2021-year-in-review-the-rise-of-centralized-healthcare/

Part 3: https://www.peakprosperity.com/dave-collum-year-in-review-2021-rise-of-global-authoritarianism/

Shots side effects

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2238739/side-effects-cost-govt-b1bn?s=09

Out of the 11,707 people who filed a claim with authorities, 8,470 people, or 72.3% of all claimants, have been compensated, said Atthaporn Limpanyalert, spokesman and deputy secretary-general of the NHSO.

Thoughts:

1. There are several horror cases out there that aren’t reported, nor are coming forward to claim, how much higher? Who knows.
2. You make 1 million people eat peanuts, 10,000 will have issues.

Taxes up, new toys, CPI

Generals need new toys, don’t forget they are protecting the livelihoods of Thais from the hordes of Burmese invading the country.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2245879/air-force-eyes-b13-8bn-jets-purchase

CPI calculations are not the same across countries, for example look at the breakdown for how the US vs W. Europe calculates CPI, if the US were to use the same basket, their inflation figures would be 7% and not 6% for the latest announcement.

For TH, it’s also an amusing concoction of figures, this month I can comfortably say that electricity costs to households are +30% MoM, food costs (chicken, pork, eggs) are +20-100% YoY, petrol at the pump is +40% YoY. But ok TH doesn’t have an inflation problem…sure.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2245951/bot-jittery-over-rising-living-costs

There’s a simple solution for this, cut the graft, magical +30-50% in excess funds for the population. I’ve seen generals go from wearing normal clothing a decade ago to having wine cellars and wearing Hermes Belts. F this rubbish.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2248559/balancing-act-in-bid-to-raise-revenue

Insurance Shit Co’s

There’s a shit list of insurance companies you should have by now, this is one of them. And guess who the owner is, our good old friend Alcohol Baron Charoen (Thai beverage/Beer Chang). So as shareholders/campaigners should one then go after the entire group companies? Their property co’s (UniVentures, Fraser) their construction co’s (stonehedge), their hotel co’s (Asset World), etc etc If this was a TV show i.e. Billions, I’d imagine a plot line goes as follows:

1. Build short positions against all the above mention co’s
2. Fund a PR campaign that Charoen’s insurance company doesn’t honour contracts with Thai Citizens/customers – unleash the kraken and watch the media pick this up and have retail investors pull out and pressure local institutions to dump their positions
3. Long positions in the competing families/business i.e. Singha, ERW, CK, STEC, anything central group.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2248975/two-firms-file-lawsuit-against-oic-head

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2254175/tgh-subsidiary-ceases-operation

https://www.set.or.th/set/companyprofile.do?symbol=TGH&ssoPageId=4&language=en&country=US

Gold Mines in Thailand

History: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/australian-company-thai-gold-mines-085349408.html

Prayuth (small cat) decided at one point to cancel this mine license agreement, what he didn’t realise is that he’s then legally liable and would have to most likely pay a f-tonne of money for cancelling this. Why? He was a dictator in charge of the country at the time and not considered legally an elected PM and therefore per the domestic law and by any half-decent international tribunal, he would be financially responsible to pay for any losses and should have been personally financially responsible for all the legal proceedings that were ongoing (though I think he used the country’s finances for this) But now its done. 5-6 years after the fact, the ozzies won back their license and the small cat can go back to his military barrack with his tail between his legs.

https://www.kaohoon.com/news/509461

DTAC/TRUE

Here’s my thinking on DTAC and True, i’ve said that the merged entity will make a ridiculous amount of $, my good friend ML likes to remind me that ARPU’s are on a rubbish trend industry wide and that my expected savings are far off the mark, and another good friend KP says “Yes you could be right, if Telenor is allowed to run it.”

Take a guess on how much CP (legally) siphons out of True annually? I’m estimating ~USD 300 mn p.a. just go through the a/c’s and tell me what you find. That Audit Committee (all independent of course) are doing a bang up job.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2255443/true-dtac-submit-merger-report-to-the-regulator

Winter olympics

How is a zero-covid policy going to work with the Winter Olympics in CCP land? Omicron (let’s just call it Omicold and get it over and done with) spreads quickly and will bring down that ridiculous policy that China has.

Does anyone quite care about this Olympics though? I don’t, I still want to know more about the the origins for this wuflu which China and the US have been rather quiet on. There is a little lab in Wuhan next to a wet market. Hello? Oh well, even the Nazi’s held an Olympic games. Why should we be surprised…pity the athletes that worked their butts off for 4 years, win a gold medal and then get ask “Which olympics was it? Oh that one”