Congratulations Thailand, you’re one of the worst performing markets in the world (granted the country has a week left to turn it around, perhaps DELTA will race to 1,000 and save every mutual fund in the country.)

A quick rant for the year (or future) – nothing changed – (ok fine, the POS overleveraged co’s are struggling)

Politically – Thaksin bent over to return home and the military and friends still cockblock the population for their choice of leader. I do muse that if they had just let Move Forward go ahead, form and lead the government that we would all be shocked by how badly they perform for the country economically.

Economically – People forget that there were lockdowns and no one outside of the big players could do business. COVID was an extinction event for SMEs & with banks no longer playing nice and calling back their loans, NPLs are climbing. Remember the -ve loan growth in 3Q23? Things are bad out there, even to the point that JMT can’t sell it’s NPA’s because the buyers can’t get financing, and this is for a discounted asset. 2024 is going to be amusing to watch.

Interest rates – For Thailand it doesn’t matter for the consumer, because interest rates haven’t (fine barely) declined for the consumer over the past 5 years. But for corporates…well it’s hurting those that borrowed via the issuance of financial instruments (bonds, debentures etc) these will have to be rolled over next year and I already brained farted on this topic earlier, see Random Thoughts: Bonds | ThaiCapitalist

Now what’s my forecast for next year?

Let me look into my crystal ball, pull a rabbit out of my backside and tell you exactly what is going to happen.

Some stocks will go up

Some stocks will go down

Now I’m going to start a subscription service just to give people that advice….

Also

The government(s) will promise many things and not deliver.

What could surprise me? What if,

-Russia/Ukraine gets settled in 2H24 (after the Russian election)?

-The US economy continues to avoid the promised recession?

-China allows its population to start flying again.

-Interest rates continue to rise?

Domestically:

-The A/B testing for the next King is finalised.

-A bank goes under (or at the very least issues a massive recap)

-At least 5 other public companies go into bankruptcy

-The SET admits that KKP was providing services to Hedge Funds that were naked shorting stocks in the market. (Throw in KGI & Kingsford as well)

-More fiscal packages actually save the Thai consumer & keeps the gravy train rocking.

-The Thai Baht hits 40 to the USD because 1) The BOT can’t risk increasing rates 2) Fiscal policies continue to drain the balance sheet and 3) Thailand hits the international bond market for the first time since ’97

Which companies will do well? No idea, but look for strong defensible market shares or market niches that still have growth and a clean balance sheet.

What’s next for Thaicap in 2024?

• I’ve enjoyed the telegram group – there’s 50 of us in there (c’mon the 3,000 of you Russian bot email subscribers) and am thankful that one of my best Thai performing names came out of there. So if you’d like to join, feel free to ping me.
• More random thoughts. Lots more. I miss the ranting. Aiming for just 1 topic/random thought/week

360 Thailand

And hey if you are still looking to gift yourself something for Christmas, buy this Amazon.com: 360: Thailand eBook : Van Compernolle, Pon: Kindle Store

It’s Xmas eve, I’m off, thanks for all the fish.