It’s been months since my last Random Thoughts, I’ve found a bunch I saved on evernote…so sit back, grab a patongo and enjoy.

Models – poorly borrowed from Dilbert’s creator, Scott Adams, and modified slightly.

• It is amusing that the world thinks models of anything are science….prediction models are just for persuasion.
• My financial model can persuade you that JKN is worth THB 10/share (but see below)
• My weather model can convince you that the world is going to boil over. (note they changed the measurement style)
• Anyone that has built financial models know that we can just change one decimal point, one input and achieve the desired target we want.
• See the bullshit?
• Have models done a decent job at predicting a range? No, they’re for persuasion.

Thailand – international bonds issuance?

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/2670539/thailand-eyes-international-bonds

Thoughts:

This, to me, is an important indicator for Thailand – 1) domestic liquidity tapped out, 2) They don’t know how to do this (anymore) 3) It’s going to make trading the THB even more “volatile” i.e. downtrend…4) the pricing they’ll get will scare the f out of the thai bond market. Why? Look at the rates everyone other country gets in the region that prices in the international market

Now perhaps someone will slap some sense into Srettha of the potential downsides but if there is a lack of liquidity domestically perhaps there is no other choice.

Indonesia

Whilst domestically in Thailand all the news is Vietnam this and Vietnam that, and yes they’ve overtaken Thailand in the FDI race with some 50% more FDI than Thailand over the past decade, but just have a listen to this interview and see what Joko has accomplished over a decade in Indonesia.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-10-26/latitude-with-haslinda-amin-indonesia-s-joko-widodo

Here’s the list:

• 16 new airports
• 18 new ports
• 2k km of tollroads
• dams 36/61
• And as one of the large groups in ID told me this past week “We haven’t had to pay any bribes since Joko came into power, it’s truly been for the people”

Hamas….Palestine…Israel.

There’s no point commenting here, awful $hit. Simplest response is, hang the terrorists by their testicles.

Hardest response that you should spend your time listening to this (it will take you 20 hours to go through the whole series, I did … some 4 years ago).

Market wise…Oil prices still haven’t gone above their highs

Indicates to me that this isn’t going to hold….still bullish on commodities – just look at how they’ve all down since lockdowns started versus all the space monkey stocks – but there could be some short term weakness.

Thai politics

This is the government that we all expected but we just didn’t know how they were going to get there.

I’m still of the viewpoint that the governance of Thailand is going from an absolute $hitshow to bad/ok and that the country should see massive upside, but as a friend commented, there’s still a lot of inertia as a result of a decade of Prayuth & friends twiddling their thumbs and stuffing their pockets, that will delay any positive outcome.

Why am I still positive? Corporates are starting to invest again.

CRC announced a massive capex expansion throughout the country and they’re taking on the big boy, CPAXTABCDEFG sorry Makro and Lotussssss”sssssss – whatever it’s called today.

This is capital will go around the economic ecosystem, land purchases/rentals, construction mat purchases, contractors hired, labourers hired, new destinations created, expansion locations for product creators (drinks, snacks, fruits, food, fashion etc etc), and more jobs created.

Btw have a look at CPAXT’s share price over the past year

Real competition is coming from Central and CPAXT has a rubbish balance sheet.

JKN is going bankrupt

https://www.set.or.th/en/market/news-and-alert/newsdetails?id=83518300&symbol=JKN

Well I hate to pour fire on someone’s misery but its his/her/shim’s own fault. The numbers have been odd ever since they went public and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a new shareholder takeover the entire business, or just see it go bankrupt…but hey my financial model can predict it’s worth more….

Thai EU FTA

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/2645398/thai-eu-trade-talks-to-start-next-week

Watch this space, because of the military coup it was postponed a decade ago.

Do not expect anything immediate, G2G negotiations take years and it will probably be another 5-7 years, at the earliest, before it is enacted and that any benefit can be seen.

Thailand’s birth/death rate

Thailand’s birth rate

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2648281/falling-birth-rate-concerns-make-national-agenda-spot-likely

“Thailand should have 2 million babies born per year, but now its only at 500,000”

Well what about working on reducing the # of annual motorbike deaths?

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/2528069/motorbike-death-toll-a-growing-crisis

20k per year die on the road, 15k on a bike, that’s 40 people a day.

And I’m done! Hope the patongo was fantastic.