With traffic worse than normal given a few roads being blocked off around Bangkok and protestors making the walk from Lumpini to Government House as off the time of writing (mind you there doesn’t look like there are many at all) we’ve been thinking aloud for the past few months that August wouldn’t be a great time to be fully invested given the obvious political noise coming around Thaksin’s 2nd attempt to return back to Thailand.

Volumes have already dropped to nearly 50% to THB 20-25 bn over the past few days and the market has been in a relatively sideways trend

So what’s going to happen now?

• The next week or so will be one of volatility should Pheu Thai attempt to push through its anmensty and reconicilation bills strongly.
• How quickly will this be resolved? Please they are starting this hubbub right before the Queen’s birthday, do you really expect them to make a decision and then kiss and make up? This will take a while.
• Anything positive thus far? Well they’ve pushed through some economic-stimulus measures (hurrah!) related to private consumption, private investment, state expenditure and exports that will have begin to have an impact by 1Q14 (boo!).
•  Finally, will Barcelona’s game against Thailand tonight result in a lack of protestors @ rallies?