Stocks in the news (ah, ckp, fti, hl, hmpro, spali, tfg) 09.10.23
AH sees strong growth in EV related business next year, with 12-month advanced orders, boosting capacity to 100%, and solid growth in its MG dealership.
Comment: Well….EVs are great for the dealers – people will buy the cars, believe that they are great for 1-2 years, then the batteries die off, and will have to buy an ICE vehicle again.
CKP sees continued higher power gen capacity at Nam Ngum on higher dam levels, due to heavy rain, mulls refinancing via new bonds.
FTI sets 20% CAGR during 2024-6, revenue reaching Bt1.45b in 2026, from Bt800m expected this year on plan to increase Water Store to 24 and Aquatek Shop to 50.
HL sees higher revenue in 2H vs 1H, on recovery tourism, firms on double digit revenue growth, and 7 new branches, boosting overall to 50, and 100 by 2025.
Comment: Turnaround play? They’re the main comp to boots. And arguably better.
HMPRO may report highest quarterly profit in 4Q23 on seasonal, expo, and full-year recognition of 11 new stores, boosting FY23 revenue to Bt74.2b, Tabloid.
Comment: Aren’t they just impressive? I have no idea how on earth they continue to perform so well despite all the headwinds they’ve faced, kudos to the management team.
SPALI launches Bt540m Supalai Ville Bangsan, a two-store tropical modern estate, presale Oct 7-8.
TFG sees continued recovery on tourism, keeps 400 branches Thai Food Fresh Market target, and 10% revenue growth target.
Geoffrey Carter
EV batteries will last for 10 to 20 years and many manufacturers of EV vehicles offer a minimum 8 year warranty. There is no going back to ICE vehicles, I’ve had hundreds of them in my fleets. Yes there is a slight fall in efficiency with age, but no different than is the case with ICE vehicles, especially diesels or LPG fueled vehicles.
Xavi
I’ve always wondered how EVs would fare in Thailand’s humid climate, and also their proneness to flooding.
Geoffrey Carter
Electric Vehicles are not as prone to flooding as ICE vehicles, as they have no air intakes and the electrics and batteries are rated at IP67 which is known as “Conditions on Ship Decks”. This allows the EV to drive through water up to 1 metre deep. However, the manufacturers of both types of vehicles do not recommend that you do this for fun. A friend, who used to run the Mercedes Benz factory here for many years, told me the story about a new model of Mercedes Benz introduced to the Thai market 20 years ago. The first time the car was driven in a flood, the doors opened automatically, due to a fault with the electronics design, causing the car to be flooded with water!
Xavi
Those rinky dink Chinese EVs that I see on the roads, it’s a bit like hair transplants, I think I’ll wait for others to be the Guinea pigs first, and then buy one once they have perfected their craft.
My trusty ICE Toyota has not let me down after 15 years.
Pon
My 20-year-old mazda is still rocking n rolling.
Pon
So again the argument I put fwd is I love new tech, but the positioning that EVs save the world is what I call bs on.
Pon
I’ve been told by the auto execs that they expect -30% battery life within 3 years.
Geoffrey Carter
Auto execs? EVs and nothing new. I grew up in London after WWII and we had a lot of EVs. We had Electric Trams in Bangkok for 76years. I have spent the last 50 years working with many of the major car manufacturers on design and development as well as the design and manufacture of batteries for Boliden. Your info is wrong. The drop is not 30% of the life of the battery, the battery can outlast the useful life of the vehicle. It is the maximum range of the vehicle without recharging that drops slightly over the years. Real world data shows that EVs are surpassing their warranty by multiples of distance, cases of high use are plentiful. For example, a Renault Zoe 52Kwh taxi in a hot climate with 345,000kms on the clock had a near perfect 96% SoH. What state would a diesel or petrol engine be in after 300,000kms? You certainly cannot look forward to maintenance free motoring with and ICE compared with EVs. EVs keep going, their range may reduce slightly with time, but they are more reliable than ICEs where a single component fails and the engine and car stop altogether. The latest batteries being developed could have twice the range allowing for the manufacturers to quote the range at the 10year point allowing for a 10% fall in capacity(range).
Pon
Hi Geoffrey, I did email you, as I’d like to have a chat about this further.