Week 27/03 – 31/03

asm.vn, bsr.vn, dxs.vn, fpt.vn, frt.vn, hax.vn, kbc.vn, msn.vn, mwg.vn, nvl.vn, tcb.vn, vci.vn, vpb.vn, vcg.vn

Corporate

ASM VN: plans to achieve net revenue of VND15,250 bn (+11% YoY). However, PAT is expected to reach VND545 bn (-43% YoY). Notably, ASM does not expect to pay dividends in 2022.

BSR VN: is expected to approve the listing of all shares on the HOSE.

DXS: Targets 2023 revenue -8% YoY, NPAT-MI -63% YoY. Almost no sales recorded in first 2M and not seeing sales picking up in March. DXS has USD178mn in inventory as of Q4 2022 that is ready to sell in 2023, so can offer at discount in worst case to fulfil the long-term debt maturing in 2023 of USD24mn.

FPT: FPT Software announced the opening of its 2nd office in South Korea. The new office will allow FPT Software to work closer with its existing customers and grow its Korean presence. It initially expanded into South Korea in 2016 and provides IT solutions/services to more than 20 customers including LG Electronics, LG CNS, Shinhan Bank and Shinsegae I&C.

Comment: Still somehow growing. Low cost/good value is their selling point. Is that really all it is?

FRT: Targets 2023 revenue growth of 13% and PBT growth of -51% (equivalent to 93% and 62% of our respective forecasts) driven by a strong decline in FPT Shop’s profit (89% of FRT’s total 2022 profit) due to lower GPM. Long Chau aims to post double-digit revenue growth and expects to add at least 400 new stores in 2023. No ESOP issuance for 2022. FY2022 cash dividend is equivalent to a yield of 0.8% and stock dividend is 15%.

Comment: All the IT retailers are screwed for 1H23, comp base is high, econ is smacked, they won’t show any decent #’s until 4Q.

HAX VN: sets, in 2023, PBT target of VND310 bn (+1.3% YoY). Also, HAX plans to pay in 2022 cash dividend at the rate of 5% and stock dividend at the rate of 25%.

KBC VN: approved the borrowing of capital from its subsidiary to serve production and business activities with total value of VND1,000 bn.

MSN VN: announced the successful disbursement of the first phase with a value of $375 mn, under the guarantee of a syndicated loan worth $650 mn signed in February 2023.

MWG VN: recorded, in 2M2023, revenue of VND25,383 bn (-25% YoY), achieving about 14% of the year’s revenue target. In which, Dien May Xanh chain contributed 51%, Bach Hoa Xanh accounted for 21.7% and The Gioi Di Dong and TopZone chains accounted for 25.5%.

Comment: And for the first time they are not announcing their profits – it’s going to be ugly.

NVL VN: NovaGroup Joint Stock Company has just registered to sell 38 mn NVL shares for the pose of balancing investment portfolio and supporting debt structure.

NVL reached agreement with bondholders to extend maturity of 2 bonds, with total issuance value USD74.1mn, by 1 and 2 years with coupon rate negotiated to increase 1 percentage point. Bond holders agreed to not declare an event of default for these bonds. NVL has also announced 2 new BOD members, one is the CEO and one is a board member of a local fund called Red Capital. We believe NVL’s restructuring is ongoing with the support from Red Capital.

Comment: The faster this is fixed or “forgotten” the quicker the corporate bond market can come back.

TCB VN: sets, in 2023, the credit balance target of VND511,297 bn (+15% YoY) and PBT target of VND22,000 bn (-14% YoY).

VCI VN: plans, in 2023, to achieve operating revenue of VND3,246 bn (+2.8% YoY) and PBT of VND1,000 bn (-5.6% YoY).

Comment: That’s a conservative forecast. Though just like everyone else it’s all backended on prayers for a great year end…

VPB VN: reached an agreement to sell 15% of shares to Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) with total value of VND35,900 bn.

Comment: Just some 60% above the current share price….

VCG VN: After the audit, the consolidated PAT in 2022 of decreased by VND118 bn to VND931 bn.

Comment: The one item that sell-side or investment folk don’t talk about Vietnam is that they use their own accounting standards which are different from IFRS9 in significant ways – especially for banks….note: VGC isn’t a bank.

Country

• Smartphone sales in Vietnam have plunged in 2M2023 as tightened spending amid rising inflation prompts the sector’s first decline in years of recent growth. Less than 2.5 mn smartphones were sold in Vietnam this January and February (-30% YoY).
• For 2M2023, pangasius exports decreased by 38% YoY, recording sales of $240 mn. In which, only a few markets in the UK, Germany, Singapore and Portugal maintained a positive growth rate of 6-81%.
• Disbursement of public investment capital in 3M2023 is estimated at VND73,192,092 bn, reaching 9.69% of the plan. In which, domestic capital is VND72,231,249 bn (reaching 9.93% of the plan) and foreign capital is VND960,843 bn (reaching 3.43% of the plan).
• SOE banks have launched credit support packages with preferential interest rates including CTG (up to USD4.3bn at 7.1%), BIDV (up to USD7.3bn at 7.0% to 9.5%) and VCB (up to USD4.3bn at 7.5% to 8.6%).
• The overnight interbank interest rate declined to 1.55% on March 22 (8-month low), per the SBV. The rates for VND-denominated loans are steeply declining, while the rates for USD-denominated loans are relatively stable.
• Vietnam attracted nearly $5.45 bn in foreign direct investment (FDI) in 1Q2023, equivalent to 61.2% YoY.
• The consumer price index (CPI) in March 2023 of Ho Chi Minh city increased slightly at 0.04%. In the basket of goods, 4/11 groups of goods increased in price, including beverages and tobacco, apparel and footwear, housing and construction materials, equipment and household appliances.