Week 10/10 – 16/10

News

• Vietnam police detained the chairwoman of a real-estate firm, Van Thinh Phat Holdings Group, for allegedly obtaining property through fraudulent means.* The executive, Truong My Lan, was held in relation to an ongoing investigation into the issuance and trading of bonds of some companies where trillions of dong were allegedly appropriated in 2018 and 2019, the public security ministry said in a statement on its website. Three others were also detained as part of the same probe, the ministry said.
• Japanese retailer Aeon plans to triple the number of malls in Vietnam by 2025 as part of its expansion strategy to meet the needs of a growing middle-class population. Aeon has some 200 stores in Vietnam at present, including six shopping malls. The stores are concentrated in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi, Vietnam’s biggest metropolises.
• The Ministry of Finance has rejected a proposal to drop the special consumption tax on gasoline, saying the tax rate is not high and adding that the issue is beyond the ministry’s authority.
• According to a statement from the legislature, Vietnam’s government proposes a 6.5% GDP target for 2023 to the National Assembly’s standing committee. Government proposes 2023 inflation target at 4.5%. The proposal reiterates government’s forecast of 2022 GDP at 8%. 2022 exports are estimated to rise 9.5%. 2022 disbursed FDI forecast to rise as much 11.5% to US$21bn-US$22bn
• GRDP of HCMC between in 9M22 reached nearly VND1,100 tn in current prices (+9.97% YoY). For 9M22, nine essential services made up 59% of the city’s GRDP. HCMC attracted 20.6 mn domestic tourists (+66.1%, and over 2.11 mn international travelers +100% YoY).
• Auto sales rose by 8.5% in September to 33,463 units as the market slowly recovered amid tightening global spending. September marked a third straight month of increase in sales, which excludes the TC Group and VinFast. For 9M22, sales rose 157% YoY to 296,403 units.
• Standard Chartered Bank recently raised Vietnam’s GDP growth forecast from 6.7% to 7.5% for 2022 and from 7% to 7.2% for 2023 after GDP growth in 3Q2022 reached 13.7%. GDP growth in 4Q2022 of this year is expected to reach 4%.
• Vietnam’s economy is expected to grow 8% this year, beating an official target for an expansion of 6.0%-6.5%. The country’s exports are forecast to rise 9.5% to $368 bn in the year, adding that its FDI inflows are seen rising 6.4%-11.5% to $21 bn -$22 bn. Vietnam, a regional manufacturing hub, has seen its economy rebounding from the pandemic, with gross domestic product in the Q3 growing 13.67% from a year earlier.
• Vietnam’s gasoline imports in 9M22 rose 131.8% YoY to $6.8 bn. More than 40% of imports came from South Korea. Other import markets included Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. Imports from China surged 130% to $676 mn.
• Vietnam exported 92,550 tons of coffee worth $226 mn in September (-17.8% in volume and -15.1% in value MoM). For 9M22, the exports of this sector had continued to grow impressively, with 1.34 mn tons of coffee worth $3.06 bn (+13.1% in volume and 37% in value YoY).
• For 9M22, pangasius exports to the market of the ASEAN had brought in over $152 mn, accounting for nearly 8% of total pangasius exports. Some top ASEAN buyers of Vietnam’s pangasius include Thailand, the Philippines and Singapore.
• In September, production of construction steel reached more than 1 mn tons (+12% MoM and +47% YoY). Sales reached 920,248 tons (-21% MoM but +8% YoY). In which, construction steel exports reached 113,158 tons (-48% YoY). For 9M22, construction steel production reached 9.8 mn tons (+7% YoY). Sales reached 9.6 mn tons (+9%).
• According to the latest report from the General Statistics Office (GSO), the number of employed people in the working-age group in the third quarter reached 17.8 mn, increasing by 642,800 compared to the previous quarter, and 2.7 mn on year.
• In September, the estimated consumption of cement products is only about 7.6 mn tons (-1.26 mn tons MoM and -15% YoY). Of which, domestic consumption is about 5.4 mn tons; exports are estimated at about 2.2 mn tons. For 9M22, the consumption of cement products is estimated at only 72.93 mn tons (-10% YoY).

Company News

BAF VN:

A series of senior leaders of BAF simultaneously sold BAF shares. Specifically, Mr. Phan Ngoc An, Mr. Le Xuan Tho and Ms. Bui Huong Giang have successfully sold nearly 6.6 mn shares, 2 mn shares and 14 mn shares, respectively.

Comment: Not sure what is going on here, but the company’s numbers look solid.

BWE VN

In September, BWE estimated its total revenue of VND289bn and PAT of VND74bn. For 9M, BoD estimated total revenue and PAT of VND2.8trl (+15% YoY, completing 73% of FY goal) and VND523bn (+6% YoY, fulfilling 70% FY target), respectively.

Comment: By this year their earnings will have increased 4x since 2017.

HAX VN:

announced 3Q with net revenue of VND1,970 bn +178%; gross profit reached VND117 bn YoY. Net profit from business activities was nearly 63 bn with PAT of VND58 bn. For 9M22, HAX reached VND5,177 bn in net revenue (+52% YoY); PAT is VND192 bn (+4.6 times YoY).

HPG VN

For Sep 2022, HPG produced 540,000 tons of crude steel. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) reached 228,000 tons (+29% YoY). Construction steel recorded 318,000 tons (-3% YoY). For 9M, HPG’s sales output recorded 5.7mn tons (+3% YoY) of construction steel products, billet, and hot-rolled coil (HRC).

KDC VN:

has passed a plan to set up a new firm mainly operating in cooking oil production, named Kido Long An Co., Ltd with charter capital of VND250 bn.

Comment: On paper this company is a no brainer, but if you go through their history and the owners choices on transactions/businesses, then one of your eyebrows will go up.

KDH VN:

will guarantee Khang Phuc House a maximum loan of VND1,220 bn to pay the cost of paying the land rent of VND420 bn, investment cost and technical infrastructure construction project of Le Minh Xuan industrial park expansion phase 1, invested by Khang Phuc House, is up to VND800 bn.

NVL VN:

NovaGroup has registered to buy 8 mn shares of NVL to raise its ownership in the latter to over 37.4%.

PHR VN:

recorded net revenue in the Q3 at VND322 bn (+14.5% YoY), achieving 65% of the quarter’s plan. PBT was VND15 bn, reaching 7% of the target of VND220 bn and PAT was VND12.3 bn (-81% YoY).

POW VN:

announced total revenue of VND1,823 bn in September, equivalent to 134% of the month plan. POW estimated total revenue of nearly VND21 tn in the first 9M22.

VHC VN

Oct 20 and Oct 21 will be the ex-date and record date, respectively, for paying 2022 cash dividend of VND2,000/share. Payment date will be Oct 28. In Sep’22, VHC’s total revenue surged to VND917b (+35% YoY), driven by most product categories. The revenue from pangasius products rose 15% YoY to VND540b, accounting for the largest proportion in total sales (c.59%), thanks to (1) the low based in Sep’21 and (2) the increase in ASP. Compared to the last month, the growth rate of VHC’s sales was lowdown while it decreased by 28% MoM, driven by all product categories and exported markets (China: -52% MoM; US: -37% MoM, Vietnam: -16% MoM; Europe: -52% MoM). The lockdown policy in China and falling demand in the US and EU markets are the main reasons for this lowdown. In 3Q, VHC achieved total revenue of VND3.4t (+52% YoY) and accumulated revenue in 9M22 was fulfilled 83.7% of FY22 guidance. announced September business results with export revenue of VND917 bn (+35% YoY and -28% MoM).

Comment: Consider this a baby TU that is still growing its volumes and capacity.

VCS VN

BoD estimated its 3Q net revenue of 1.09trl (-41.3% YoY) and PAT of VND200bn (-59% YoY). For 9M, VCS estimated VND4.43trl in net revenue (-15% YoY, completing 53% of FY plan), VND1.12trl in PBT (fulfilling 46% of FY target) and VND941bn in PAT (-28% YoY).

VGC VN:

sets a target of consolidated PBT of VND1,700 bn, of which the parent company’s PBT is VND1,200 bn in 2022. For 9M22, VGC estimated at VND2,057 bn of PBT (+97% YoY) and the parent company’s PBT of VND1,620 bn (+72% YoY). 

Comment: Thai comp is DCC & DRT and AMATA and whichever real estate company you want to compare…. but this is an example of the typical VN company that Amata can’t compete against….and similar to those Thai companies 15 years ago, VGC’s profits will be 3x higher this year versus 5 years ago.

VIB VN:

For 9M22, VIB achieved a total revenue of over VND13,300 bn (+29% YoY). Non-interest income reached more than VND2,400 bn, contributing 17% to total operating income. Operating expenses were well controlled, about VND4,600 bn (+12% YoY).

VIC VN:

Vinfast and Infineon expand cooperation in the field of Electrochemical Mobility.

VTP VN

Oct 19 and Oct 20 will be the ex-date and record date, respectively, for paying 2021 stock dividend at the ratio of 10,000:933.

Comment: One of those companies that should be a great performer, and had done decently until covid, but with a odd management team that refuses to meet with non-vn investors 1 on 1.