Thailand’s economy recovering?
Well according to the latest GDP information it appears that GDP expanded 1% in the past 3 months compared to the previous quarter, won’t be surprised to see several economists begin to annualise this number and say that Thailand will hit 5% GDP Growth next year….
Anyways, here’s a few snippets from a Bberg article and a link to the source.
“There are reasons to think the economy’s recovery has further to run over the coming quarters,” Krystal Tan, Singapore-based Asia economist at Capital Economics Ltd., said in a note. While the recovery is unlikely to be as strong as some analysts expect, the country’s budget that began at the start of October includes a 20 percent year-on-year increase in public investment, while an improvement in global conditions should support exports, she said.
“Fiscal policy is the most effective tool at the moment,” said Tim Leelahaphan, a Bangkok-based economist at Maybank Kim Eng Securities Thailand Pcl. “We have to see very, very weak data points in order to justify another cut, but we are not going to see that because in the final quarter it will be much better than the third quarter” as some stimulus policies are implemented.
Source: Bloomberg
Xavi
Wow, that Demco result released late last night took the market by surprise…Now about the WEH listing????
Pon
From what I know WEH is still on, yes its 3q #’s were quite the surprise, selling has been brutal followed by what is most likely a lot of margin calls, will be interesting to see how it settles by tomorrow and the day after. If management buy’s shares like she always does maybe this provision is only going to be one-off.
Xavi
I do think in times of margin calls and panic it makes a good buying opportunity for those who can stomach the risk. I am adding to my position.
Pon
I would not disagree with that comment 🙂
Xavi
Pon, any Idea what WEH’s market cap is likely to be? Some saying 4x that of Demco which seems rather large.
Pon
Have a look at Nusa’s company news announcements a few weeks/months ago, it details that they bought a 1% stake in WEH. From there you can calculate what the pre-IPO valuation for WEH is and figure out what DEMCO’s ~4% stake is worth. It’s a pleasant surprise 🙂
Xavi
Looks like Nusa paid towards the top of the band estimate for the IPO price.
Not complaining if Demco can get close to that price will be a 300% windfall (pardon the pun) for them.
Xavi
Pon correct me if my maths is wonky, at current prices and assumed market cap relative to what Nusa paid, Demco’s holding of WEH is worth roughly a third of their market cap?
Pon
Correct, I think that NUSA has paid a pre-IPO valuation, wouldn’t be surprised for it to be 600+ when listing, note DEMCO’s cost is 190 and management has stated that it will sell its stake @ IPO, so have a go @ calculating its potential pre-tax profits next year.