The Fed and Emerging Markets
A nice little op-ed from Mark Mobius post the fed decision to not increase rates and its impact on emerging markets. See below for snippets and a link to the full article
In contrast to the Fed, central banks in emerging markets generally are not considering the question of raising interest rates in their home countries. The largest—China—has been working to stimulate its economy through lower interest rates and other measures.
We generally see lower inflation and, therefore, lower interest rates in emerging markets going forward, despite the threat of future US interest rate actions. At the government level, emerging market government bonds in many cases are seeing higher yields, but this phenomenon does not necessarily carry through to the private sector.
To us, the key question for equity investors in all this news is, where does value lie? With the downturn this year in emerging markets generally, equity valuations have become more attractive, with declining price-earnings ratios. Of course, with the low interest rates that we have seen, average price-earnings ratios have been moving up in the past few years. Only recently, with the downturn in the markets, have we seen more reasonable ratios. However, in many cases they tend to be high by historical standards, and therefore a careful stock selection program is necessary in our view.
Source: Franklin Templeton