Be warned – I’m going to ramble…

First reaction at hearing the military was going to take over – disappointment, Thailand’s politicians and judicial system, weren’t mature enough to figure out how to solve the issue themselves. I was hoping for the past 6 months that Thailand’s political system would be able to sort itself out, thereby implying that should “anything” happen in the future, the political system would be strong enough, stable enough to stand on its own two feet, but that obviously isn’t the case yet.

Was I surprised that a coup occurred?
Nope, see above, it is just unfortunate that the maturity of the system isn’t there yet. Although Thailand still is a young democracy, officially it is some 80+ years, but in reality I think Thailand has only been a democracy since the late 80’s. So there is still a long way to go.

So is this coup any good?
Yes, definitely, why?
1. Things are starting economically again, the country has essentially been on hold for the past 6 months and the military has already begun to pay the farmers back, they’ve put together one damn good advisory council, re-look into all the projects that have been passed by the government etc etc..,
2. The coup has temporarily removed uncertainty, we know the military is in charge, we know that most likely by 3Q15 there will be an elected government in charge
3. I think corruption levels will finally decrease, you talk to any business man that has been operating since the 70’s and they’ll tell you “These politicians only care about themselves first and then the country, and they take 30%! The military, they took 3% and cared about the country first, who do you think I prefer?”

But isn’t it bad a thing that Thailand isn’t a democracy? Every Western democracy is in an uproar about the coup.
Well what else would you expect for them to say? “Well done Thailand on kicking out politicians and becoming a dictatorship” Of course not! They “have” to decry this, its just part of the political rhetoric.

How has the coup progressed thus far?
It’s one incredibly efficient, well-executed, well-planned coup, any military general around the world will clap their hands at how well this was done. Day 1 – politicians out, day 2 – senate out, day 3 – keep protests to a minimum, day 4 – bring in a damn good advisory council (anyone else notice that Somkid, ex-Thaksin era DPM, is there?), day 5 – Invite all businessmen related to Thaksin for a coffee/tea and most likely tell them to be quiet and allow for things to progress, day 6 – ask all state run enterprises bosses for their business plans or they can happily resign.

But so many things could go wrong! The military could stay in power forever!
Hmmm, by the looks of it, this fellow doesn’t seem like he wants to run the country forever, and Thailand itself has gone through a 6 month crash course in politics and perhaps for the first time, people realise the power of their votes. So, no, the military won’t stay there, the people won’t allow it.

So…will the political system actually change?
I have no idea on what exactly will change from a legal viewpoint, but what they should aim for is a system that is still fair, democratic, etc etc but that prevents parties/pm’s from pushing through their own agenda’s at 3-4AM, thats just a bit ridiculous.

And what happens to Thaksin?
I suppose the same as before, people who have been found guilty of whatever case in the court system will be banned for a period of 5 years. Can he come back again for another round? Sure why not, but if the political system is “stronger” with more checks/balances then hopefully “everyone” in Thailand is fine.

And the democrat party?
THE BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT IN THE HISTORY OF POLITICS GLOBALLY….okok just Thailand. They still can’t win anything, Korn, in my viewpoint, has been kicked out, most likely b/c he tried to hard to become the next leader of the party (which in all honesty, as nice as Abhisit is, Korn would be a far better leader). But so far nothing I don’t expect them to win anything.

Ok, so what about the market?
Well, I posted a week ago how the market has reacted historically, this time shouldn’t be any different, everyone is happy for the next few months, then reality kicks in that things haven’t improved economically just yet (so a lull again in September?) and then earnings catches up and the market takes off again. Sector wise, the usual names, first banks, telco’s and consumer names run; followed by construction/property, tourism, and finally everything else.

Any last rambling points?
Sure there are many, but in the end for Thailand, nothing has really changed, the country isn’t going to split, it has been a bloodless coup, everything has been well-organised thus far and lets see how everything unfolds in the next 12 months.