Thailand

• BoT: Rate slash still a possibility – Even though the Bank of Thailand believes the current policy rate would boost economic recovery this year, it has left the door open to a possible cut if the economy is slower than expected or unexpected effects emerge. The central bank expects economic growth to reach 4% this year, driven mainly by public and private investment coupled with a recovery in domestic consumption. (Bangkok Post, 6/2/15)
• January confidence index falls – Consumer sentiment fell last month after an 18-month high in December, as people grew more concerned about the country’s slow economic recovery, relatively low farm prices and weak export growth. (Bangkok Post, 6/2/15)
• Foreign capital outflow surged to Bt12 bn on profit-taking last month – Foreign capital outflow last month reached a net Bt12 billion, probably due to profit-taking after the Bank of Thailand let its policy interest rate stand, the Thai Bond Market Association reported yesterday. (The Nation, 6/2/15)

• Cheap oil may add nearly 1% to GDP: minister – Gross domestic product could be boosted by about 1 per cent this year thanks to lower global oil prices, according to a study by the Commerce Ministry’s Policies and Trade Strategies Bureau. Duangkamol Jiambutr, spokeswoman for the ministry, said the significantly lower oil prices would benefit the Thai economy as a whole, cutting the costs of manufacturing, agriculture, exports and logistics. The ministry’s study also projected that the average global oil price would be about US$65 per barrel this year. The price dropped by about 60 per cent between June and last month to less than $50 per barrel. GDP could be fattened by 0.96 per cent, inflation could be lower than the previously forecast of 1.8-2.5 per cent, and export growth could expand by a 1 percentage point. (The Nation, 4/2/15)
• Prices hit five-year low but no deflation – Consumer prices hit a 64-month-low last month due to declining oil and food prices, but authorities still insist Thailand has yet to see signs of deflation. Economists also forecast negative inflation will be seen through the first half of this year but have ruled out deflation. The ministry yesterday reported January’s headline inflation, based on 450 products and services, shrank by 0.41% year-on-year. It was the first contraction in more than five years, since September 2009, and due to a fall of 1.86% in non-food prices, particularly transport and communications. (Bangkok Post, 3/2/15)
• Keidanren will stay put – The Japanese Business Federation or Keidanren remains confident in Thailand and is keen to continue investing here. Of particular interest are industries promoted under the Board of Investment’s (BoI) new strategy as well as development of infrastructure, high-speed trains and special economic zones. (Bangkok Post, 3/2/15)
• Countryside remains stagnant, says TDRI – The government should implement stimulus measures to boost the lacklustre economic recovery through job creation in rural areas by repairing small-scale infrastructure, says Somchai Jitsuchon, research director for inclusive development at the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI). He said Thailand’s economy could expand by 4% this year, given improved export growth and accelerated public investment on infrastructure development, which would subsequently draw in private investment incentives. (Bangkok Post, 3/2/15)
• BoT: No risk of deflation – The Bank of Thailand insists the threat of negative inflation in the first half does not warrant a cut in the policy interest rate, saying the situation will be short-lived. Negative inflation is expected to continue into the second quarter, based on central bank projections that oil prices will stay low in the first half, said Mathee Supapongse, assistant governor for monetary policy and secretary of the Monetary Policy Committee. (Bangkok Post, 4/2/15)
• JSCCIB worried about stubbornly slow economic recovery, export prospects – The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) is concerned about the status of Thailand’s economic recovery and export competitiveness because of slower-than-expected government spending and the strength of the baht. The Thai currency is stronger than others in the region, and the Thai Chamber of Commerce is planning to discuss the matter with the Bank of Thailand next week. (The Nation, 4/2/15)
• Globally
• US initial jobless claims up from 14-year low – The number of Americans initially applying for unemployment edged up higher in the final week of January after falling to a 14-year low, US Labor Department said Thursday. In the week ending on Jan. 31, the advance figure of seasonally adjusted initial claims for jobless benefits rose to 278,000 from 267,000 in the prior week, the lowest level since April 2000, the department said. (Xinhua, 6/2/15)
• US exports hit record high in 2014 – US exports hit a record high of US$2.35trn in 2014, but trade gap increased due to stronger US dollar, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Annual services exports hit an all-time high of US$710.3bn, led by increases in the travel, transport, charges for the use of intellectual property, and financial services sectors. However, the trade deficit swelled by 17.1% in December to US$46.6bn, as a strengthening dollar prompted a surge in imports. (Xinhua, 6/2/15)
• US productivity declines in Q4 – The labor productivity of the US nonfarm business sector decreased at a 1.8% annual rate from October to December of 2014, according to the US Labor Department on Thursday. (Xinhua, 6/2/15)
• EU Raises Eurozone Growth Forecasts – The economists at the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, said the eurozone should grow 1.3% this year and 1.9% in 2016. In November, they expected growth of 1.1% this year and 1.7% next. The commission raised its growth estimates for most of Europe’s largest economies, including Germany, France and Spain. (Nasdaq, 5/2/15)
• German Manufacturing Orders Rise Faster Than Expected – Manufacturing orders in Germany rose sharply in December, providing more evidence of economic strength in Europe’s largest economy amid falling oil prices and the euro’s weakness on currency markets. Orders rose 4.2% on the month in adjusted terms, data from the country’s economy ministry showed on Thursday. The increase surpassed a 1.2% rise expected by economists in a Wall Street Journal poll
  conducted last week. (WSJ, 5/2/15)
• Danish central bank cuts deposit rate to negative territory – Denmark’s central bank cut its interest rates on certificates of deposit by 25 basis points to -0. 75% on Thursday. (Xinhua, 6/2/15)
• Bank of England maintains ultra-low interest rate – The Bank of England (BoE), the central bank of Britain, voted Thursday to maintain the bank rate, the benchmark interest rate, at 0.5%. The bank also voted to maintain the stock of purchased assets, or quantitative easing policy scheme, at 375 billion pounds (about 570 billion U.S. dollars). (Xinhua, 5/2/15)
• Greece insists on end to austerity – Greece’s new left-led anti-bailout government insisted on its plan Thursday to put an end to austerity, dismissing mounting political and financial pressures for an U-turn to reach a compromise with international lenders on the resolution of the sovereign debt load. (Xinhua, 6/2/15)
• U.S. auto giants post big sales gains in January – Three major automakers of the United States all reported on Tuesday double-digit sales increases in January, with General Motors (GM) leading the way with an 18.3-percent gain over last January, Ford sales rising 15.3 percent and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) posting a 14-percent gain. (Xinhua, 4/2/15)
• New orders for manufactured goods dropped 3.4 percent in December from the previous month, missing market consensus of a 2.2-percent decline, said the U.S. Commerce Department on Tuesday. (Xinhua, 4/2/15)
• Eurozone industrial producer prices fall by 1 pct in December – Industrial producer prices of both the eurozone and the European Union (EU) fell by 1 percent in December 2014 from the previous month, EU’s statistical office Eurostat said on Tuesday. On the year-on-year basis, industrial producer prices fell by 2.7 percent in the eurozone and by 3.1 percent in the EU. The decreases in industrial producer prices of the eurozone and the EU are mainly due to 3.1 percent and 3.7 percent declines in the energy sector respectively, said Eurostat. (Xinhua, 3/2/15)
• Proposal for a further relief of Greece’s sovereign debt – Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis revealed that the new government does not intend to push for a “haircut” of the Greek debt, risking a confrontation with international creditors who do not welcome the idea. Athens would rather suggest alternative options, such as a debt swap for growth-linked bonds, according to the latest indications. (Xinhua, 4/2/15)
• German New Car Registrations Rise in January – Germany’s Federal Motor Transport Authority, or KBA, said 211,337 passenger cars were registered in Europe’s largest car market in January, an increase of 2.6% on the year. (Nasdaq, 3/2/15)
• China capital account deficit widens in Q4 – China’s capital account deficit widened sharply in the last quarter of 2014 as domestic companies expanded investment overseas. The capital and financial account deficit was 91.2 billion U.S. dollars for three months ending in December, compared with the third quarter’s 9 billion dollars, according to preliminary statistics released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) on Tuesday. (Xinhua, 3/2/15)
• U.S. construction spending rose less than expected in December, with private outlays barely rising amid declines in investment in power and transportation projects. Construction spending rose 0.4 percent to an annual rate of $982.1 billion, the Commerce Department said on Monday. (Reuters, 2/2/15)
• Final Markit manufacturing PMI revised higher in January – The final reading of the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index was adjusted slightly upward, to a reading of 53.9 from the “flash” reading of 53.7. (MarketWatch, 2/2/15)
• U.S. manufacturing activities moderate in January – The manufacturing index, also known as the purchasing managers index (PMI), registered 53.5 percent, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from a month ago, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said in a report. (Xinhua, 3/2/15)
• U.S. consumers earn more, spend less in December – U.S. consumers’ personal income rose while spending fell in December. Personal spending fell 0.3 percent following an increase of 0.5 percent in November. Personal income increased 0.3 percent after a rise of 0.3 percent a month earlier. (Xinhua, 3/2/15)
• Eurozone manufacturing growth modest in January – The final seasonally adjusted eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) stood at 51.0 in January 2015, up from December 2014’s print of 50.6, reported by Markit Monday. The start of 2015 saw a modest growth acceleration in the eurozone manufacturing sector, said Markit. (Xinhua, 2/2/15)
• Greek PM says to negotiate only within Euro, not turn to Russia – Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said on Monday that he will negotiate a new debt agreement for his country within the European Union and will not turn to Russia for a loan. Tsipras also said that a Grexit, that is Greece leaving the euro, was out of the question. (Xinhua, 2/2/15)