• Ministry sticks to 1.2% export target despite dire forecasts – Despite many organisations projecting low export growth this year, the Commerce Ministry has maintained its target at 1.2 per cent as it expects shipments to recover in the second half on the back of a predicted rise in oil prices and a weakening in the value of the baht. The ministry said yesterday that the value of the country’s exports in May had contracted for a fifth consecutive month, falling 5.01 per cent to US$18.42 billion (Bt622 billion) – the sharpest year-on-year decline since February. (The Nation, 27/6/15)
• Deadline for trade ‘window’ – Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has told the Customs Department and the Ministry of Finance they have until December to finish their work on a new electronic system of customs clearance, known as the National Single Window. The premier wants the NSW up and running before Asean transforms into a single community at the end of the year. (Bangkok Post, 28/6/15)
• FPO sharpens knives for another growth incision – The Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) is set to cut its 2015 growth forecast again next month due to weaker-than-expected exports in May, the worst drought in more than 10 years and lukewarm domestic consumption, although the new estimate is unlikely to dip below 3%. (Bangkok Post, 30/6/15)

• Greek financial calamity will have little impact on Thailand: ministry – The financial problems Greece is facing have affected money and capital markets across the world, but its effects on the euro zone economy, the Thai currency and Thailand’s export sector will be limited, the Finance Ministry said yesterday. (The Nation, 30/6/15)
• TNSC to revised down export target – Thai National Shippers Council said it will revise down export target for the year to -1.5% or lower from the previous assumption of no growth, wiping out Bt123bn from the economy, caused by slower-than-expected global economic recovery, the drought that will cut harvests and impact from Greece. (Post Today, 30/6/15)
• June CPI down again to 1.07% YoY, bringing ‘technical deflation’ – Yesterday, the Commerce Ministry reported consumer prices based on 450 products and services contracted by 1.07% year-on-year last month following contractions of 1.27% in May, 1.04% in April, 0.57% in March, 0.52% in February and 0.41% in January. The fall was due mainly to low energy prices. Thanavath Phonvichai, vice-president for research at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said there was nothing to be scared of as long as the economy remained in a positive range. Core inflation, which excludes volatile oil and food prices, was flat last month, reflecting weak purchasing power, cautious spending by consumers and a weak economy, he said. “Based on the latest figures, it’s a must for the government to rev up injecting money into the system, tame the baht’s strength, cut the interest rate to spur spending and speed up mechanisms to allow businesses to get more access to bank loans,” Mr Thanavath said. (Bangkok Post, 2/7/15)
• Ministry maintains 0.6-1.3% inflation target despite decline – Despite inflation dipping into negative territory for the past six months, the Commerce Ministry is leaving its inflation target for this year at 0.6-1.3 per cent in anticipation of oil prices recovering in the final quarter. (The Nation, 2/7/15)
• Household debt up. Thailand’s household debt climbed to nearly 87% of GDP in the first quarter, reaching 10.6 trillion baht, Bank of Thailand data show. The figure was an increase from last year’s fourth quarter, when it stood at 85.9% of GDP or 10.5 trillion baht. However, the debt ratio, under the new method for calculating GDP, was recorded at 79.9% of GDP, up from the fourth quarter’s 79.3%. (Bangkok Post, 2/7/15)
• Thailand to benefit from US GSP – The Commerce Ministry is confident in its export-growth target of 1.2% for this year now that the United States is again granting tax privileges to 127 countries including Thailand under its extension of the Generalised System of Preferences. (The Nation, 2/7/15)
• Level playing field sought for all firms – The government has been urged to amend the Trade Competition Act to extend regulations to state enterprises and create a level playing field for private-sector counterparts, says a member of the State Enterprises Policy Commission or superboard. (Bangkok Post, 2/7/15)
• Consumer woes cut deeper in June – Thai consumer confidence plunged to a 13-month low in June, dampened by weak economic prospects, tepid exports, low farm prices and the ongoing drought. According to the latest survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC), the consumer confidence index fell for a sixth straight month in June to 74.4 points, down from 75.6 in May, 76.6 in April, 77.7 in March, 79.1 in February, 80.4 in January and 81.1 last December. The June reading was the lowest since May 2014, when confidence began rising on hopes of an economic rebound after the May 22 coup ended months of political unrest. The survey also found confidence in the overall economy fell to 63.8 points last month from 65 in May, while confidence about job openings and future income fell to 69.4 and 90 from 70.3 and 91.4, respectively. (Bangkok Post, 3/7/15)
• Risks pose threats to growth, Aviation, Mers, Greek crisis add to gloom – Greater internal and external downside risks threatening the economy have raised concerns that this year’s annual growth may come in below the Bank of Thailand’s 3% forecast, says a senior central bank official. Don Nakornthab, director of macroeconomic policy, said the 3% baseline growth projection had not taken recent negative developments into account. Additional negative factors are the International Civil Aviation Organization’s decision to place a red flag on Thailand’s aviation safety, the first case of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) here, harsher-thanexpected effects from the drought and Greece’s debt default to the International Monetary Fund. “Every member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agrees the 3% projection could be a base-case forecast, but they also view that there is a possibility it may be lower, given the aforementioned risks,” Mr. Don said. (Bangkok Post, 3/7/15)

Globally

• Consumer sentiment jumps to five-month high – The final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose to 96.1 in June. The reading is a five-month high. Economists had forecast a reading of 94.6, unchanged from the flash reading, and up from a final reading of 90.7 in May, according to Bloomberg. (Business Insider, 26/6/15)
• ECB to maintain its current level of ELA to Greece – The European Central Bank (ECB) on Sunday announced that it would keep the emergency liquidity to Greece at the current level. “Given the current circumstances, the Governing Council decided to maintain the ceiling to the provision of emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to Greek banks at the level decided on Friday,” said an announcement by the ECB. (Xinhua, 29/6/15)
• Greek parliament backs bailout poll – Greece’s parliament backed an unexpected call for a referendum on a final bailout offer by the country’s creditors, even as eurozone finance ministers withdrew the offer and rejected Athens’ request for a brief bailout extension in the run-up to the vote. The ruling leftwing Syriza party and its rightwing coalition partner, Independent Greeks, won a roll-call ballot by 178 votes for to 120 against. (Financial Times, 28/6/15)
• China cuts reserve ratio, interest rates to bolster growth – China’s central bank cut both the requirement reserve ratio (RRR), the amount of reserves banks required to hold, and benchmark interest rates on Saturday. The credit-easing move, to be effective on Sunday, aims to “support the real economy and promote restructuring,” said the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) in an announcement. (Xinhua, 29/6/15)
• China’s industrial profit growth slows to 0.6 pct in May – Profit growth at major Chinese industrial companies slowed in May, highlighting the downward pressure on China’s economy. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Sunday that profit growth at industrial companies with annual revenues of more than 20 million yuan (3.27 million U.S. dollars) slowed to 0.6 percent year on year in May, down 2 percentage points from April. (Xinhua, 29/6/15)
• Japan industrial output down 2.2% in May on month – Japan’s industrial output in May fell a seasonally adjusted 2.2 percent from the previous month, the government said Monday. The index of output at factories and mines stood at 97.1 against the base of 100 in 2010, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in a preliminary report. (Kyodo, 29/6/15)
• Japan’s jobless rate flat at 3.3% in May – Japan’s unemployment rate remained flat at 3.3 percent in May after falling in April, the government said Friday. The country’s job availability improved in May, separate data showed. The ratio of employment offers to seekers rose to 1.19 from 1.17 in April, which means 119 positions were available for every 100 job seekers. (Kyodo, 26/6/15)
• U.S. Pending Home Sales at Highest Level in Nine Years – A forward-looking indicator of home sales rose to its highest level in more than nine years in May, a sign the housing market is gaining traction after a shaky start to the year. The National Association of Realtors said Monday its index of pending home sales increased 0.9% to a seasonally-adjusted 112.6, the highest level since April 2006. The index tracks contract signings, which usually close within two months. (WSJ, 29/6/15)
• Greece will default – According to a report from The Wall Street Journal on Monday afternoon, Greece will not pay the €1.55 billion (about $1.73 billion) due to the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday. The Wall Street Journal is citing a Greek government official. This is, however, an expected move given the turn things took over the weekend. (Business Insider, 29/6/15)
• Greece closes banks after bailout talks break down – Greece has closed its banks and imposed capital controls to prevent financial chaos after the breakdown of bailout talks with its international creditors. The move, which left many depositors scrambling for cash, came at the end of a weekend which saw Greece lurch closer to a potential exit from the European single currency, confronting the eurozone with a rupture unprecedented since its launch in 1999. (Financial Times, 29/6/15)
• German inflation slows in June – Consumer prices in Germany continued to increase in June but at a slower pace, official data showed on Monday, signaling that Europe’s biggest economy was still under pressures of low inflation. Annual inflation rate measured by consumer price index (CPI) in Germany slowed to 0.3 percent in June from 0.7 percent in May, said German federal statistical office Destatis in a statement. (Xinhua, 30/6/15)
• China’s economy to grow by 6.93 pct in Q2 – China’s economy will grow by 6.93 percent year on year in the second quarter, said a report by the National Academy of Economic Strategy (NAES), which is affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences on Friday. (Xinhua, 29/6/15)
• Japan retail sales chalk up second month of gains – Japanese retail sales rose 3.0% in May from a year earlier, the second straight month of increase. (Market Watch, 28/6/15)
• U.S. economy likely rebounds in Q2, Fed vice chairman – U.S. economy likely expanded at an annual rate of about 2.5 percent in the second quarter, with support from rebounding consumer demand, said Stanley Fischer, vice chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve. (Xinhua, 1/7/15)
• The American job machine is in high gear – Private payrolls grew by 237,000 in June, the highest since December 2014, according to ADP. Analysts had estimated that private payrolls grew by 218,000 last month, up from 203,000 in May, according to Bloomberg. (Business Insider, 1/7/15)
• U.S. manufacturing activities pick up growth pace in June – Economic activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector picked up expansion pace in June, an industry survey showed Wednesday. The manufacturing index, also known as the purchasing managers index (PMI), registered 53.5 in June, up from the reading of 52.8 in May, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said in a report. (Xinhua, 2/7/15)
• U.S. Retail Sales Fall in 4th Week of June From May – National chain-store sales fell 1.5% in the first four weeks of June from the comparable period in May, according to Redbook Research’s latest indicator, released Tuesday. June is a five-week month on the retail calendar that ends July 4. (Reuters, 30/6/15)
• Greek failure to make IMF payment deals historic blow to eurozone – Greece was left alone, insolvent and almost bankrupt after five years of €240bn (£170bn) in European bailouts dried up and the country became the first in the EU to default on its creditors. The country failed to make a €1.5bn payment to the International Monetary Fund on time and has thrust the eurozone into an emergency. (30/6/15)
• No Eurogroup on Greece planned before Sunday referendum – No new Eurogroup meeting on Greece is planned before a Sunday referendum in which Greeks vote whether to accept or reject a bailout deal offered by creditors, a Greek government official said after a call between finance ministers of the currency union. (Reuters, 1/7/15)
• Eurozone Manufacturing Hits 14-Month High – Data firm Markit, which surveys more than 3,000 manufacturers across the region, said its purchasing managers index rose to 52.5 in June from 52.2 in May, confirming its flash estimate from June 23. A reading below 50.0 indicates activity is declining, while a reading above that level implies it is increasing. (WSJ, 1/7/15)
• China’s manufacturing activity stable in June, services boom – China’s manufacturing business activity in June remained in expansion territory while growth in the services sector quickened, suggesting continued economic improvement as the government’s supportive measures gradually took effect. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), a key measure of factory activity in China, posted 50.2 in June, unchanged from last month, according to data compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. (Xinhua, 1/7/15)
• U.S. Jobless Claims Rise to 281,000 – The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week, but the level remains historically low. Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs across the U.S. economy, increased by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 281,000 in the week ended June 27, the Labor Department said Thursday. (WSJ, 2/7/15)
• U.S. Economy Adds 223,000 Jobs; Unemployment at 5.3% – The economy added a healthy 223,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported Thursday, but with other indicators showing wages flat and many Americans remaining on the sidelines, the overall economic picture for workers was not nearly as bright. Although the unemployment rate fell to 5.3 percent, the lowest in seven years, that was driven largely by an exodus from the work force, rather than more people finding jobs. (New York Times, 2/7/15)
• U.S. factory orders continue to fall in May – U.S. factory orders continued to drop in May, driven by the decrease in transportation orders, the U.S. Commerce Department said in a report Thursday. In May, new orders for manufactured goods went down 4.5 billion U.S. dollars, or 1 percent, to 470.5 billion dollars, the report said. The new orders, which followed a 0.7 percent decrease in April, kept falling in nine out of the last ten months. (Xinhua, 3/7/15)
• ECB adds to quantitative easing list, extending crisis tools – The European Central Bank added 13, mainly infrastructure-focused, government-linked agencies to its 1 trillion euro quantitative easing (QE) buying list on Thursday. (Reuters, 2/7/15)
• Greek president cancels planned trip to Berlin on Tuesday – Greek President Prokopis Pavlopoulos has canceled a trip to Berlin planned for Tuesday, which will come two days after a referendum on an international bailout, a person with knowledge of the issue said on Thursday. As head of state, Pavlopoulos would be responsible for overseeing a change of government in the event that Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras were to resign following the referendum, which is widely seen as a vote on the future of Greece in Europe. (Reuters, 2/7/15)
• Japanese firms project inflation remaining lower than BOJ goal – Japanese companies expect consumer prices to rise 1.4 percent one year from now, below the Bank of Japan’s inflation target of 2 percent, according to a survey result released by the central bank Thursday. (Kyodo, 2/7/15)