What were your best hits of 2014?
Just out of random curiousity, I want to know what all of your best performing names of 2014 were, just list them in the comments below, my top three were:
- SAMART: ~150%
- PTG: ~100%
- DCON: ~100%
Just out of random curiousity, I want to know what all of your best performing names of 2014 were, just list them in the comments below, my top three were:
Jordan
Demco 120 percent
RWI sixty percent
ECFsixty percent
Pon
Thanks, demco I know the story there, RWI and ECF not sure.
In fairness, I had:
SAMART – cheap on valuation, obvious growth from SAMTEL, knew the firm would actively look to list its subs, SIM #’s would still be ok, and SAMART’s other businesses would continue to perform, still kicking myself at selling it too early
PTG – Cheap value, obvious growth with the expansion in stations and increased utilisation of land
DCON – just on the basis that the condominium transfer would make it worth thb 2 – 2.5 / share, as long as the core business remained stable.
Jay
BMCL 120%
BTS 35%
Prem
iec – 150%
Pon
IEC?? Based on what?
Xavi
Biggest Hit was ITD, up 170% (wish it was my biggest holding), but been selling down slowly since it crossed 7 baht.
I am not bullish on the Set this year, valuations are stretched, I don’t think earnings growth can support any upside of substance.
Pon
Nice one, yeah markets stretched valuation wise but some sectors are still doing well (digital tv related for example)
Jay
Since the unrest during 2013-2014, investors have been focusing on earnings plays resulting in stocks with prices reflecting 2-3 years of future growth (e.g. EA)
I totally agree that with the current market PE at 18.9 and 2015F PE projected at 15+, there’s is very limited upside to the SET.
Eurozone begins their QE program at the beginning of March but with the SET being as expensive already, it is doubtful that much of that foreign currency will enter Thailand.
To push the SET further up there needs to be either: a rebound in oil prices (energy sector), infrastructure investments (banking sector), a domestic interest rate cut (property sector), or the 4G auction and Digital Economy going ahead (ICT sector). If this all happens we’d easily see 1700pts and possibly 1800pts before Christmas 🙂
Pon
Re QE, as long as there is a better yield in countries outside of Europe (and the US) foreign investors will continue to come to this region, and Thailand should benefit from the natural spill-over.
Bo Stenberg
Of possible interest: http://www.starcapital.de/research/stockmarketvaluation
Robert Shiller called at least two of the last three busts in the USA. He believes it is all in the mind, his wife is a behaviorist. But he and a colleague developed this metric anyway, 555. It evens out P/E valuations. He is presently bullish on Greece, Russia, Europe….
Pon
Very interesting link, thanks for sharing.
Xavi
One interesting note is that DTAC’s 14 yield payout is 1.5 times earnings while their net D/E is creeping up. I don’t care for a 7% yield if the underlying investment is going to turn into a POS.
Jay
DTAC has been sliding down the path to irrelevance for a while now, so glad I switched to TRUE when I did
Xavi
I reckon the best Telco play is Intuch, highest yield and lowest PER in the industry. Plus they have the added bonus of Advanc utilizing their dominant market position to muscle into the fixed broadband which will hurt True as the current market leader in time.
Jay
Agreed, INTUCH is a great dividend stock. TRUEIF offers a better yield but with a much lower beta. If you are looking for high-yield low-risk, there isn’t much better. Very little upside though.
ADVANC will see better quarters going forward due to the upcoming 4G auction and also due to their recent 40bn baht investment in current and new markets, as you mentioned.
As for TRUE, the benefits from the China Mobile investment still haven’t fully hit the financial statements. There is talk of a dividend payment sometime in the second half of 2015 that will only support the current price. To be honest, 14 baht/share sounds reasonable once the debt and interest payment is cleared up, but with no dividend for months yet and intense competition from 3BB/TOT/AIS, TRUE is currently overpriced.
DTAC just announced a new CEO, which is a good first step in a sorely needed turnaround, but the company is hemorrhaging cash and I doubt it can hold on to the number 2 spot for much longer. The latest dividend announcement just made me cringe, since those the extra funds would be much better used as capex to keep the company competitive.
The real winners this year will most likely be the IT support companies that will benefit from the upcoming Digital Economy proposals, specifically the plans to increase national internet speeds to 100mbit. AIT/MFEC etc have all jumped in price since these announcements but some of their competitors are still lagging behind. A great opportunity for 2015 imo, and one that I am slowly accumulating shares in.
Great time to be investing in the ICT sector.
Pon
Re DTAC don’t forget that the parent company, Telenor, needs the $ to continue its expansion in India and Myanmar.
Bo Stenberg
Gung Hay Fat Choy, Jay.
Jay
Xin Nian Kuai Le!