What’s going on with oil?
I’ve been asked this question a couple of times in the past week and the best answers I could think of was 1) Well the USD has gotten stronger 2) Alternative Energy/Shale may finally be having an impact 3) *Conspiracy theory* The Saudis are either listening to the US to hurt Russia or decided they had enough of alternative energy/shale and want to make sure they are not economically viable. Regardless this is the best article that I’ve found online that summarises all potential reasons for the decline in oil prices. Enjoy.
Though the U.S. shale oil boom of the past several years has led to a renewed surge of domestic oil production as well as an oil glut, crude oil prices have remained stubbornly high. There are a growing number of reasons, however, why crude oil prices are likely to finally experience a bust in the not-too-distant future. I avoid making firm predictions about the oil market because there are so many conflicting variables that affect oil prices, from supply and demand, geopolitics (which is inherently unpredictable), and the global monetary environment, but it is important to be aware of several factors that have a high probability of pushing crude oil prices lower in the next couple of years.
Source: Forbes
Finally, which firms are hurt by this the most locally? Easy PTT, PTTEP, TOP, who benefits? Almost everyone + Thailand itself as oil accounts for a significant portion of total imports.
Mike
Where do you think PTT and PTTEP will be in 6 to 12 months time?
Pon
PTT – big question, too many moving parts, can’t really comment
PTTEP – If oil prices stay @ these lvls, then PTTEP will continue to decrease lower (unless they do a massive acquisition to boost their volume #’s – which i don’t see happening)
Mike
I bought PTTEP at 144.5 and thought I got a good price. Pants.
Surely, it’ll bounce back up in the next 12 months.
Is it time to sell or hold?
Pon
I wish I had a crystal ball.
Mike
Ditto, Pon. Ditto.
Trader No. 9
Go find me a crystal ball Pon!
Pon
Go and ask santa claus