Highs in key indices spur optimism for GDP. The Thai economy got off to a strong start in 2018, with solid private consumption and tourist arrivals, and exports and consumer confidence hitting multi-year records in January. This prompted the FPO in January to upgrade its economic growth forecast for this year to 4.2% from 3.8% and raise its estimate for exports, which make up 70% of GDP, to 6.6% from the 5.7% growth projected three months ago. (Bangkok Post, 27/2/18)
Bt200 bn fast train plan backed. A Bt200 billion high-speed train project has won backing from the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) Policy Committee, with agreement in principle for one of the big ticket infrastructure projects that are being fast-tracked in the flagship economic zone. International bidding for the project is due to start next month. (The Nation, 27/2/18)
Three railways connected to airports will be proposed to cabinet and open for TOR in April. The final winners will be announced on August and will be proposed to the cabinet again. (Matichon, 28/2/18)
Thai economy continued to expand in January 2018, said BOT. Exports and tourism sectors grew solidly, consistent with the strong growth momentum in external demand. Private consumption expanded in all categories. The continued expansion in both external and domestic demand contributed to the growth of manufacturing production. Public spending expanded from the growth in capital spending. Meanwhile, private investment improved slightly from the previous month. (BOT, 28/2/18)
TAT expects more tourists during Songkran festival. The cabinet approved an extra day during the festival to run from April 12-16. It expects 3,010,300 tourists, up 12.10% from last year’s 2,685,400, generating revenue of Bt10bn, +15.59% from last year. (IZ Biz, 2/3/18)
Eurozone final CPI: Core inflation softens more-than expected in Jan. According to Eurostat’s final reading of Eurozone CPI report, the consumer prices came in at 1.3% on a yearly basis, confirming the flash estimate. While the core figures also matched the first readout of 1%. On a monthly basis, the CPI figure for January decelerated by -0.9% versus 0.4% previous while the core CPI figure eased by -1.7% versus -1.6% expected and 0.5% last. (FX Street, 26/2/18)
An index for small and mid-size manufacturing in China is at a six-month high. A survey focused on small and mid-size manufacturing in China surpassed expectations to hit a six-month high in February. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for February came in at 51.6. Economists polled by Reuters expected the private Caixin/Markit PMI to come in at 51.3 in February versus 51.5 in January. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below that signals contraction. (CNBC, 2/3/18)
ISM manufacturing index hits 60.8 in February; construction spending unchanged in January. A measure of U.S. manufacturing activity increased faster in February, extending a growth streak that stretched into 18 months. The Institute of Supply Management’s manufacturing index jumped to 60.8 in February, up from the 59.1 reading recorded the month before. Economists from Reuters expected manufacturing growth to slip to 58.7 in February. A reading above 50 for the index indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, and a reading below 50 signals contraction. (CNBC, 2/3/18)
St. Louis Fed’s Bullard says ‘substantially’ higher rates risk overly tight policy. An era of low productivity growth and high world demand for safe assets may be anchoring central bank policy rates at a low level, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said on Monday. If the Fed continues to hike short-term rates, he said, the result could be policy that is too tight for the current economy. The current federal funds target of between 1.25 and 1.5 percentage points is “within the range” of policy rule recommendations that account for a neutral rate of interest held down by several slow-to-change factors, he said. (CNBC, 27/2/18)
Fed’s Powell Says He Sees ‘No Evidence’ of Overheating in the U.S. Economy. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he sees no signs the U.S. economy is overheating even as the outlook for growth strengthens and the labor market tightens. During congressional testimony Thursday, he reiterated the central bank will continue to raise rates gradually to keep unemployment and inflation in balance. (Bloomberg, 2/3/18)
